Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at DeckaDice QLD DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1002
· median 1002
· range 1002–1002
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1299
1617
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
